Focused on the electricity system, our New Energy Outlook

Focused on the electricity system, our New Energy Outlook (NEO) combines the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12 countries to provide a unique view of how the market will evolve.

What’s new in the 2018 NEO? 

What sets NEO apart is that we focus on technology that is driving change in markets and business models across the sector, such as solar PV, onshore and offshore wind and battery technology. In addition, we put special focus on changing electricity demand, electric vehicles, air-conditioning, and the growing role of consumers. NEO includes our price forecasts for coal, oil and gas around the world, and assesses the impact of the energy transition on fossil fuel demand and materials.

Each year we aim to make a number of changes to NEO to continuously improve the completeness and complexity of our analysis. In 2018, we have included the following in the client report:

• Extended our outlook from 2040 to 2050.
• Expanded our new-build algorithm to include utility-scale lithium-ion batteries – both stand-alone and paired with renewables – for energy arbitrage as well as peaking capacity.
• Expanded our assessment of new air-conditioning load to include Brazil, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand.
• Added chapters on materials demand, market design and coal phase-out scenarios.
• Updated our PV and wind cost and lithium-ion battery cost curves with 2017 data.
• Updated our comparative cost of energy analysis to better capture difference between technologies and the cost of bulk electricity and flexibility, and enhanced the digital experience when interacting with our data models.

In addition, we have updated a number of the proprietary models central to this forecast, including: our EV and small-scale solar PV and storage consumer uptake models, and our electricity demand fundamentals model.

While BNEF clients get access to the full NEO report including the content above, an excerpt of the findings in a free public report.

“Wind and solar are set to surge to almost “50 by 50” – 50% of world generation by 2050 – on the back of precipitous reductions in cost, and the advent of cheaper and cheaper batteries that will enable electricity to be stored and discharged to meet shifts in demand and supply.  Coal shrinks to just 11% of global electricity generation by 2050.”

https://www.goodpeoplenews.com/home/2018/6/27/by-2050-renewables-will-supply-87-of-electricity-in-europe-55-in-us-62-in-china-and-75-in-india